Probability of winning
Information regarding the probability of winning is essential for an informed decision and realistic expectations. This is why Tipico provides customers with clear information about the odds of winning.
Games are based on a random number generator. Whilst an individual result cannot be predicted, the behaviour of the random number generator can be described very accurately in statistical terms over a very large number of games. Every game offered by Tipico has a theoretical payout rate of at least 92 per cent. This means that 92 per cent of all wagers staked are paid back out to players according to the long-term statistical average. The empirically measures playout rates reported by us can occasionally remain minimally below this value due to random events.
However, with sports betting, a win depends on whether the predicted result for the event in question is correct or not. The probability of a specific outcome of a sporting event cannot be mathematically determined in advance. As you would expect, sports experts, fans and bookmakers come to different conclusions here.
Bookmakers use odds to state their prediction on the outcome of the game. This is calculated, amongst other things, from information publicly available on the current team formation or the number of games won in the past. But such information is generally not just available to Tipico, but also to our customers.
The odds offered by Tipico also illustrate our bookmakers’ opinion of the likely outcome and therefore provide information about our estimate of a potential win or loss. This estimate can be worked out directly from the odds by calculating the reciprocal and then dividing it by the sum of the reciprocals for all the individual results.
|Home win||1 / 1.2 = 0.833|
|Draw||1 / 7.0 = 0.143|
|Away win||1 / 14 = 0.071|
|Total of reciprocals||1.048|
(according to bookmaker’s estimate)
|Home win||0.833 / 1.048 = 79.5 %|
|Draw||0.143 / 1.048 = 13.6 %|
|Away win||0.071 / 1.048 = 6.8 %|
These examples of odds for a single game correspond to a calculated payout ratio of 95.5% before taxes. Our bookmakers usually make calculations with a payout ratio of 90 to 95% for individual games.
Our games generally come with an explanation of the rules, which always covers in-game options and odds of winning. These rules can be accessed directly from the game.